ocschwar: (Default)
ocschwar ([personal profile] ocschwar) wrote2006-05-15 02:07 am
Entry tags:

Fun with bc -l

A quote from the New York Times:

"To increase output from the current 9 million barrels a day, to 10.5 million in 2030, Russia will need to invest $900 billion in oil field technology".

Let's turn on bc and see what it things, shall we?
athena% bc -l
bc 1.06
Copyright 1991-1994, 1997, 1998, 2000 Free Software Foundation, Inc.
This is free software with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY.
For details type `warranty'.
10.5-9
1.5 # An increase of 1.5 million barrels per day.
900000/1.5 # 900billion, er 900,000 million dollars divided by 1.5 million barrels per day.
600000.00000000000000000000 # 600,000 ($*day/barrel). $600K for every added barrel per day production.
365*70 # A barrel a day, at $70/barrel, over a year.
25550 # comes to $25.55K in revenue
600000./25550# 600,000 invested over money returned per year.
23.48336594911937377690

So it would take Russia 23 years to recoup their investment, if oil prices hold at $70. Is anyone seriously expecting them to take this bet? Think what kind of time frame Putin wants to see his investment pay off over. Think of what oil price would bring that about. Plan accordingly.

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